Slower Home Price Gains This Fall

Slower home price gains in metro Denver for second straight month

Homeownership rate in state dips after a rebound in second quarter

By ALDO SVALDI | | The Denver Post

PUBLISHED: October 31, 2017 at 4:27 pm | UPDATED: October 31, 2017 at 4:29 pm

Metro Denver home prices rose at an annual pace of 7.2 percent in August, the same as in July. But the month-over-month increase in August was only half that seen in July, which points to slower gains in the months ahead, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.

That pace of annual appreciation in both July and August is the slowest Denver’s housing market has recorded since October 2014, notes Trulia economist Cheryl Young. But it remains above the national pace of home-price appreciation of 6.1 percent.

Seattle continued to lead the nation with an off-the-chart 13.2 percent annual gain in home prices, followed by a resurgent Las Vegas at 8.6 percent and San Diego at 7.8 percent. Denver, Detroit and Portland, Ore., were next at 7.2 percent

Metro Denver’s home-price index rose 0.3 percent between July and August, half the 0.6 percent measured between June and July. If August’s monthly appreciated rate is converted into an annual one, home-price gains would be around 3.6 percent.

“Although this seems like a modest increase, those seeking affordable options in Denver will be met with dismally low inventory and record high prices,” Young said.

A separate report from the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday found that 63.9 percent of U.S. households owned the home they lived in during the third quarter, up from 63.7 percent in the second quarter and 63.5 percent in the same quarter a year earlier.

In Colorado, the homeownership rate dropped to 64.9 percent, down from 66.6 percent in the second quarter and 63.5 percent in the third quarter of 2016. At the start of 2005, Colorado’s homeownership rate topped 72 percent.

“The American Dream of homeownership remains elusive, as the third quarter figure shows little change in the overall  rate,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, said in a statement.

Yun said there aren’t enough homes to satisfy demand and the lack of inventory has pushed up home prices nationally by 48 percent from the market low in 2011. Wages over the same period have risen only 15 percent.

Denver Area Home Prices, Then and Now

Click here for a video on this article 

Average prices up dramatically since 2007

Kurt SevitsJace LarsonAndy Miller, Peter Lipomi 

1:58 PM, Feb 28, 2017

13 mins ago

denver | colorado | money | housing market | housing

DENVER – In the 10 years since the recession and housing crisis, home prices have steadily risen in Denver and the surrounding areas, making it increasingly difficult to find an affordable home.

Citywide, the average sale price of a detached single-family home has climbed nearly 60 percent since 2007, standing now at slightly more than $426,000. Some parts of the metro area, however, have seen much steeper increases approaching 200 percent.

At the neighborhood level, numbers from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors show the biggest changes occurring in areas where you used to be able to get a home for $100,000 or less. In Elyria-Swansea, for example, the average price of a single-family home in 2007 was just more than $80,000. Now, you’re looking at an average of $235,000, which represents an increase of about 193 percent.

It’s a similar story in Athmar Park, where the average home price has jumped 181 percent in the past decade to $386,000. In the Barnum neighborhood, where you could once get a home for just over $99,000 10 years ago, you’ll now have to pay more than $260,000.


Though neighborhoods within Denver city limits have seen some of the most dramatic increases in home prices, other cities within the metro area are seeing the same trend. In the portion of Aurora that falls in Adams County, prices have increased 113 percent since 2007. Commerce City is up 82 percent in the past decade and Northglenn is seeing average prices up almost 64 percent.

READ MORE: Report puts Colorado among worst states for first-time homebuyers

The map below shows average prices in 2007 and 2017 for a selection of counties, cities and individual neighborhoods within the Denver metro area. Open the menu by clicking the button in the top left and click on each layer to toggle between them.


Where can I find a home in the $250,000 range?

For the most part, if you're looking for a home that costs about $250,000, you'll have to look outside of the Denver city limits.

The good news is that you don't have to go that far, according to Steve Danyliw with the Denver Metro Association of Realtors.

"The most affordable neighborhoods are the north area of Aurora, Westminster, even south Aurora as far as Adams County or Arapahoe County," Danyliw said.

Realtors say buyers in those areas can expect to find two or three bedrooms but it will most likely be an older property and it might not be your ideal choice of neighborhood.

RELATED: These five neighborhoods are good options for first-time homebuyers

’You better move fast or it’s going to be gone’

Not only is Denver expensive, but it’s a fast-moving market, with many homes entering and leaving the market in a matter of days. In fact, a recent report from real estate brokerage Redfin named Denver the fastest market in the country.

Diane White knows that first-hand. She just bought a home in Denver’s Five Points neighborhood, making an offer within 24 hours.

“If you find something you like, you better move fast or it’s going to be gone,” White said.

One of the main reasons homes are selling so quickly is low inventory – there simply aren’t enough homes available to meet the increasing demand.

“Right now, we’re [looking at] about 4,000 listings,” Danyliw said. “We typically see 13,500 this time of year.”

RELATED: In Denver's tight housing market, does it make more sense to rent or buy?

That low inventory makes for intense competition and real estate agents say buyers have to move quickly and bring something extra to the table to beat out other bidders. Some prospective buyers write letters to sellers, while others even create videos to showcase their families.

The housing hype might have people worried that we’ll be seeing a housing bubble burst in the next couple years, but Danyliw said that’s not likely.

“None of the things that we’ve been tracking indicate any type of housing bubble,” Danyliw said.


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Housing momentum in Colorado moves down the Front Range

The Colorado Springs housing market exploded last year

By ALDO SVALDI | | The Denver Post

PUBLISHED: January 22, 2017 at 12:14 am | UPDATED: January 22, 2017 at 12:58 pm

Metro Denver’s housing market has run so hot for so long, it is hard to imagine another part of the state having more momentum.

But demand along the southern Front Range accelerated in a big way last year, and Denver and Boulder homeowners, flush with equity, sought vacation homes in the neighboring mountain counties, supporting those markets.

“The Colorado Springs market exploded last year,” said Jay Gupta, a real estate agent with Berkshire Hathaway.

Gupta said the Colorado Springs region recorded a 15.6 percent jump in home sales in 2016 versus 2015, and a 23.2 percent increase in the dollar volume of homes sold, according to information from the Pikes Peak Multiple Listing Service.



By contrast, new listings and sales for homes didn’t change much last year from 2015 in metro Denver, according to the Denver Metro Association of Realtors.


Although sales were flat in metro Denver, an 11.4 percent jump in median prices pushed the dollar volume of sales up from $20.3 billion in 2015 to $22.2 billion in 2016. The Denver market isn’t slowing so much as running at full throttle, leaving it no room to accelerate.

Elbert, Huerfano, Pueblo and Teller counties, along with El Paso, ranked on top for market acceleration, according to a Denver Post analysis of single-family home statistics provided by the Colorado Association of Realtors.

The analysis scored the percentage increase in listings, sales, home prices and the percentage decreases in the number of days it took to sell a single-family home in every Colorado county with 10 or more sales on a multiple listing service last year.

Adding those scores up, Elbert County was the state’s hottest housing market last year, followed by El Paso. Moffat and Phillip counties came next, and then Huerfano and Pueblo counties. Broomfield County did the best among the metro counties, but it ranked only 24th for acceleration.

For example, the average number of days a single-family home spent on the market before going under contract dropped from 73 days in 2015 to 36 days in El Paso County. In Denver County, homes still turnover much faster, within 24 days on average, but that is up from 22 days in 2015.

Even though the southern Front Range heated up, price gains remained more constrained. The median price of a home sold in El Paso County last year was up 6.3 percent versus a 9.6 percent gain in Denver.

In some ways, the southern Front Range looks like it is following a path taken in the northern Front Range two years ago.

Gupta said the El Paso County housing market started really heating up in the summer of 2015. As the supply became more constrained, skeptical buyers came off the fence, fueling a big wave of buying last spring.

Rising rents and historically low interest rates left many tenants anxious to buy, Gupta said. Several buyers he worked with secured a monthly mortgage payment below what they had been paying in rent.

Diminishing affordability in metro Denver was also at play. The median price of a single-family home sold in Denver last year came in at $400,000, but it was only $255,000 in El Paso County, according to the Colorado Association of Realtors.

“People are finding the commute from northern Colorado Springs to south Denver isn’t so bad,” Gupta said, especially when compared to driving from the northern suburbs to the Denver Tech Center at rush hour.

Gupta said he even has heard of a metro Denver worker who purchased a home in Fountain, south of Colorado Springs, and is commuting from there.

Spillover from metro Denver’s strong market also seems to be providing support to the mountain counties.

“The Front Range has been a big contributor to our market the past year,” said Onie Bolduc, past chair of the Vail Board of Realtors.

Buoyed by a solid economy and large home equity gains, residents in metro Denver and Boulder are purchasing vacation homes in nearby mountain towns, he said.

While “strong” might overstate the situation, housing markets in Routt, Summit and Eagle counties showed a momentum that was missing in more removed counties like Pitkin and Gunnison.

A stronger U.S. dollar has made it more expensive for international buyers to purchase vacation properties in Colorado, and the election of Donald Trump as president depressed the Mexican peso by an even larger amount.

Many Texans, another important source of demand in Colorado’s mountain resorts, were coping with depressed oil and gas prices, making them less active. But in-state buyers were active, and driving distance, not to mention price, made a difference in what they bought.

The median price of a single-family home sold in Pitkin County dropped 37.1 percent last year, while it increased 17.6 percent in Eagle, 15.4 percent in Routt and 10.3 percent in Summit.

Some of that discrepancy reflects the ultra high-priced homes that sold in Aspen back in 2015. But the number of home sales was down 18.3 percent in Pitkin County last year while it was flat or up slightly in Routt, Summit and Eagle counties.

“A little bit of this was a pullback from buyers saying it might be overheated,” Telluride real estate agent George Harvey said of the slump Aspen suffered.

Mesa County saw home sales rise, up 5.6 percent, and homes sold in 95 days on average versus 137 days. But median home prices dropped 5.2 percent, the only metro area in the state where that happened.

As for metro Denver, buyers and sellers can expect another year living on what some market observers have called the “high plateau.” A constrained inventory is restraining sales, and pushing up prices. But higher mortgage rates are expected to reduce the number of buyers, capping how much home values rise this year.

“Barring something unusual we will see the same kind of spring as we did last year — limited supply and high demand,” said Mark Trenka, chairman of Colorado Association of Realtors.